Since the end of World War II in 1945, mankind has witnessed a few number of blood shedding wars on the planet. When compared with the past two centuries, the period post-1945 has seen lesser large-scale wars and battlefield deaths. Historians are calling this period 'long peace', but Dr. Aaron Clauset from the University of Colorado says this peaceful period may not last long.
Aaron Clauset claims that human beings are prone to engage in mammoth wars like world war II at least once in every 205 years. During the study, he analysed the size and impact of conflicts between 1823 and 2003 to determine whether the 'long peace' is a significant long-term change. Clauset also tried to figure out how common wars happened in this time period and how many people died as an aftermath.
After the initial research, Aaron Clauset found that there were 95 wars fought in this period of 181 years, and it equalled to one war in every 1.91 years on average. To make things more clear, Clauset divided these 181 years into three sections.
The first period which ranges from 1823 to 1914 witnessed a stream of large wars including the Boer War and the Crimean War. Clauset's statistics reveal that 19 large battles broke out at this time frame at an average of one every 6.2 years.
The second section is from 1914 to 1945. Beginning from the World War I until the end of World War II, and this period witnessed 10 Great Wars at an average of one every 2.7 years. Clauset revealed that this period has marked the violent killing spree which the human history has ever witnessed.
The third section which ranges from 1945 to 2003 is relatively calm when compared to the previous two sections.
"Since 1945, there have been relatively few large interstate wars. This pattern sometimes called the long peace, is highly controversial," told Clauset to Daily Mail.
Experts say that wars between countries are pretty less in the period we live, but there is no visible decrease in civil disputes and internal conflicts.
Clauset estimates that a war which is as dreaded as the World War II will happen on average every 205 years which indicates that the risk of a large war in the future is much higher than we actually believe. The statistic expert also added that he has taken into account data only until 2003 and several wars in the recent times were not included in the research.
"The risk of a large war in the future may thus be higher than currently believed, and it's crucial that we continue to promote peace and mitigate conflict in the future," concluded Clauset.
However, experts believe that the spread of democracy to all nooks of the globe, increased economic interdependence, and the threat of nuclear war will prevent world countries to begin another world war in the near future.
