Over 155 million Americans voted in the 2020 presidential election, marking the highest participation rate among eligible voters since 1900. This year, however, early signs suggest that turnout may fall short of that peak, although it remains to be seen whether 2024 will exceed the 128.8 million votes recorded in 2016.
It took four days in 2020 to be assured that Joe Biden was the winner of the presidential election. This time, though polls indicate it could be the tightest race in over sixty years, the results are expected to be known much sooner. Some results are already out but some more time is needed before the winner is declared.
The Race Tightens
Although all 50 states and the District of Columbia will have a say, the outcome will largely hinge on seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are also up for grabs, with Republicans aiming to build on the three-seat majority they held at the close of the 118th Congress.
In the Senate, Democrats face a tough challenge to defend their slim 51-49 lead, as the GOP is expected to flip Democrat-held seats in Montana and West Virginia. Republicans will also seek to unseat incumbents Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, while working to retain Ted Cruz's and Rick Scott's seats in Texas and Florida, respectively.
Tracking the Results
Based on 2016 race projections by the Associated Press, here's an overview of when Americans could expect to learn who the 47th president will be.
7:11 pm
Most states are likely to be called within this period, with the majority being declared shortly after polls close, the New York Post reported. Ohio is expected to be the first of eight swing states to be called, with Trump projected to capture the Buckeye State's 17 electoral votes, the NY Post reported.
Republican control of the Senate is expected to be projected shortly after polls close in Montana at 10 p.m. ET.
11 pm-12 am
Results for two more swing states, Georgia and North Carolina, are expected with the majority of votes also coming in from a third swing state, Arizona, the outlet reported. All three states are toss-ups and could go to either Trump or Harris.
In the previous election, North Carolina and Georgia weren't called until 10 and 16 days afterward, respectively. However, due to recent changes in state laws, officials are hopeful that most ballots will be tallied by late Tuesday night.
Arizona was the first battleground state called in 2020. This year, though, given the high volume of mail-in ballots that can't be counted until polls close, media outlets may wait until Wednesday afternoon to make a call.
12 a.m. – 2:30 a.m.
During this period, projections for two more swing states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are expected. This could also be the earliest point for declaring a winner in the presidential race. A quick declaration would most likely happen if either Trump or Harris sweeps Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Wednesday
Michigan, another key swing state where Harris has shown some of her strongest polling numbers, is expected to report unofficial results within 24 hours of polls closing at 9 p.m. on Tuesday.
If results from other states are still pending, the nation may be anxiously awaiting Michigan's outcome — much like Florida's pivotal role 24 years ago.
Assuming no major delays, Alaska is expected to be the final state to be projected around noon on Wednesday, with Trump anticipated to win its three electoral votes.
