According to an article published by a prominent news platform, Prof Gabriel Leung the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University said that the main question was to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg.
Another scientist Ira Longini a World Health Organization adviser who tracked studies of the virus's transmissibility in China said that the virus might get transmitted enough to affect two-thirds of the population which could be in billions. Longini said that the virus spread before the effective quarantine was in place.
Twitter Clarification on the article
The article written in the Guardian garnered attention and Leung has been questioned about what he meant through certain comments. In a tweet clarification, he acknowledged the article and talked about the reasoning and model to understand what he had said.
Worth noting this isn’t really a forecast. It’s what happens if you put R0=2 into an extremely simple mathematical model, which in effect assumes I’m as likely to meet someone in New Zealand as I am my neighbour. https://t.co/km7nk7QFkk
— Adam Kucharski (@AdamJKucharski) February 12, 2020
The assessment from Leung came from understanding the transmission rate. Leung replied on the questions regarding his comments on Twitter by defining a mathematical model that helps in structuring the idea of the transmission.
For the record: I did not run any such model. The Guardian quote referred to my response when asked about an attack rate of 60+% generated by a Japanese colleague.
— Gabriel Leung (@gmleunghku) February 13, 2020
Leung replied to the predicted rate by talking about what his quote meant and what the transmission rate is and how a wider transmission can be predicted.
Simple function of an R0=2-2.5 with mass action homogeneous mixing dynamics. The attack rate of 70-80% is meaningless per se because one needs to understand 1) over what time period this could happen and 2) severity of infection. Then we can make informed decisions to mitigate. https://t.co/J4kaW1B9Va
— Gabriel Leung (@gmleunghku) February 12, 2020
Leung believes that the fatality rate would be high if the infections continue to spread. In a meeting with the WHO he has stated the same by emphasizing the need to understand if the rate of transmission can be contained. Longini's assessment was based on a model which showed that each infected person normally transmits the disease to two to three other people. The relative mildness of the infection can also affect this number.
For now, all the international authorities and government officials believe that containment is an essential part of looking at the virus until a proper vaccination comes into effect.
