President Biden will withdraw from the presidential race this November during a tumultuous year that will see rolling blackouts in American cities, a boycott over driverless cars and the release of an inhaled Covid vaccine, a leading strategist at JPMorgan has predicted. Michael Cembalest predicts that Biden will opt out of the race "citing health reasons."
Over the weekend, Cembalest, the head of the market and investment strategy unit at the asset management division of the Wall Street bank, unveiled startling predictions in his 'Ten Surprises' list for 2024. The investor theorized that Biden will likely withdraw from the 2024 election following Super Tuesday as he faces dismal poll numbers.
Startling Predictions
Cembalest predicted that Biden would exit the presidential race "sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons." Super Tuesday is scheduled for March 5, involving 16 states and territories conducting their primaries and caucuses on that significant day in the election calendar.
The winner of the "Super Tuesday" contests is typically viewed as the frontrunner with strong prospects of ultimately securing the party's nomination for the presidency.
According to Cembalest's predictions, in the event of Biden's withdrawal after Super Tuesday, he would be replaced by a candidate selected by the Democratic National Committee.
"Biden has a low approval rating for a President with ~10% job creation since his inauguration, although that figure is the by-product of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of COVID vaccines and a reopening US economy," Cembalest wrote in his predictions.
Cembalest shared his forecasts in a newsletter as a tribute to the late JPMorgan market strategist Byron Wien, who had been making 10 predictions annually for almost four decades until his death at the age of 90 last year.
Wien clarified that his intention with making these predictions was to challenge conventional thinking and stretch people's perspectives. He acknowledged that these prophecies might not necessarily materialize, but he emphasized the significance of diverging from the consensus in an industry often dominated by conventional expectations.
Shocking 10 Predictions
Cembalest's list also included predictions that Americans would resist the adoption of self-driving electric vehicles after a series of accidents in San Francisco. He also warned of potential blackouts hitting New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Tennessee, attributing them to a shortage of natural gas.
Cembalest's other predictions included the availability of a new inhaled Covid vaccine, expected to reduce virus transmission significantly. He foresaw stability for the US dollar and expected that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would persist throughout the year without a ceasefire.
Despite recent instability in the lending sector, he expressed optimism about the performance of stocks from US regional banks.
His forecast about Biden withdrawing was linked, in part, to the president's low approval rating, despite what he noted as "around 10% job creation since his inauguration."
The strategist, Cembalest, pointed out that Biden's impressive job creation figures were, in his view, a result of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of Covid vaccines and the reopening of the US economy.
However, Cembalest did not venture into predicting who might replace Biden as the Democratic candidate.
Currently, Vice President Kamala Harris faces public disapproval, with over half (55.5 percent) expressing dissatisfaction with her job performance, as reported by the FiveThirtyEight data and statistics news site.
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and self-help author Marianne Williamson are the sole Democrats who have officially announced their presidential candidacies. The two less prominent candidates will engage in a debate in New Hampshire on Monday, with President Biden opting not to participate.
Another Democrat, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is planning to enter the race as an independent candidate.
Despite some concerns about Biden's age and mental acuity, he continues to be the clear favorite to secure his party's nomination, with polls indicating that three out of four Democrats prefer him over Williamson and Phillips, as reported by FiveThirtyEight.
In the GOP race, former President Donald Trump maintains a significant lead against potential contenders such as Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and biotech mogul Vivek Ramaswamy.
As of the latest public opinion surveys, if the presidential election were held today, Biden would reportedly lose to Trump. It's important to note that public opinion is subject to change, and polling data can fluctuate over time.
