The election night was expected to be a wild one, with the fight between Donald Trump and Joe Biden heating up, and it turned out to be exactly so. In a dramatic turn in the closing hours of the 2020 polls, Biden saw his betting odds fall, while it made a wild swing in favor of Trump, much like it happened on the final hours in 2016.
Most betting site painted a similar picture, with Trump now a favorite to win the 2020 elections. Joe Biden saw his betting odds fall from -170 down to their current rate of +185 around an hour before the polls come to a close. On the other hand, Trump has been putting up an impressive show and now is the -230 favorite to win the 2020 Presidential election at numerous online betting sites.
Trump Takes the Lead
Most online betting sites had their odds in favor of Trump now, at least an hour before the polls close. Betting site Betfair currently has its odds for Trump to beat Biden 51 percent to 49 percent. As of 11 pm ET, two hours until the final polls close, betting markets are giving Trump a 70 percent chance to win and get reelected.
11 pm ET Odds:
- Donald Trump: -300 (70% implied probability)
- Joe Biden: +210 (30% implied probability)
The scene didn't change even after the polls finally closed with gamblers now going in favor of Trump. "Donald Trump is now favourite to win the election for the first time, surging by 27% on Betfair Exchange since polls closed," Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said in an email. "In a remarkable turn of events, Trump has overtaken Biden significantly and is now in pole position, suggesting it could be a very nervous night ahead for Biden."
Who Will Have the Last Laugh?
The scene seems to be much like a repeat of 2016, as of now. Trump had made a dramatic advance in the closing hours of polls in 2016 also after Hilary Clinton led all major polls all through the summer. According to the Election Betting Odds Tracker at OddsShark, Trump was last at minus odds in September, but what's more surprising is that his current odds are a lot higher than those he enjoyed prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus.
Also, according to Oddschecker, Biden's election odds on November 2 were at a 65.2 percent chance of a win. However, by Election Day, that percentage had dropped to a 61.9 percent chance. Betting experts have always maintained that the betting markets are far more accurate than news networks when it comes to predictive abilities given that the betting markets read and adjust on a daily basis, while polls conducted by news networks are days old.
