The pollster Helmut Norpoth was among the very few people who correctly gave the prediction that Donald Trump would win the 2016 Elections and four years later his data modeling again predicted that Trump is almost sure of getting re-elected as the president.
A professor of political science at the Stony Brook University of New York, Norpoth made the prediction model in 1996 by analyzing data from all US elections since 1912. Despite what the mainstream polls all over America say in the run-up for the polling day on November 3, Norpoth claims Trump has a 91 percent chance of winning the elections.
Trump to Win Election?
The model is based around every candidate's performance in the party's Primary Elections where the Republicans and the Democrats voted for who their presidential candidate should be. By making a comparison between Trump and Joe Biden's results in the Primaries to those in the last 108 years, Norpoth claims that one can accurately predict how the overall vote is going to play out in the actual election.
Not surprisingly, the Republican primary witnessed sitting president Trump achieve a major victory receiving 94 percent of the votes whereas Joe Biden had just 52 percent votes for himself. He was run close by Bernie Sanders and other major Democrat figures like Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren.
Norpoth's model has been right for every winner of the popular vote after 1996. But, a second and also well-known pollster named Alan Litchman has predicted Hoe Biden as a clear winner. His methodology is similar to what is used in predicting earthquakes. In recent times the Trump administration has faced the wrath of the people due to the way it tackled the coronavirus or COVID-19 pandemic as the US has still the highest numbers of reported coronavirus cases. With the election some days away, it will be interesting to see what happens in the near future.
