Allan Lichtman, the esteemed American political historian known for his accurate presidential predictions, has made a bold forecast for the upcoming election. Lichtman, who has gained recognition as the "Election Nostradamus" confidently announced that Kamala Harris will emerge as the winner of the 2024 presidential race.
In a video released by The New York Times, Lichtman declared, "Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States." He emphasized the importance of voter participation, urging, "The outcome is up to you, so get out and vote."
Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, D.C., since 1973, has built a reputation for accurately predicting the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections. Over the past 40 years, he has successfully forecasted the winner in nine out of ten elections. His only notable misses were the 2000 race where George W. Bush narrowly defeated Al Gore, and the 2016 election where he wrongly anticipated Donald Trump would win the popular vote. Despite these exceptions, Lichtman's predictions have largely been reliable.
Lichtman's forecasting method, known as "The Keys to the White House," was developed with Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. This system evaluates 13 key factors related to the state of the nation and the incumbent party during an election year. These factors include the president's party's standing in Congress, the health of the economy, any scandals or social unrest, and the charisma of the candidates. Each factor is assessed as either "true" or "false" to predict the election outcome.
According to Lichtman, if the incumbent administration achieves six or more "true" ratings, its candidate is likely to win. Conversely, fewer "true" ratings suggest that the challenger has a better chance of winning. In his recent video, Lichtman reported that eight of the 13 keys currently indicate a "true" outcome for Harris, suggesting a strong likelihood of a Democratic victory in November.
However, Lichtman also acknowledged the potential for changes in the race. He noted that three keys are currently "false," with two additional factors at risk of flipping to "false." Even if these additional factors change, Lichtman believes that five negative keys would not be enough to secure a victory for Trump.
Lichtman commented on the influence of foreign policy, stating, "Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip." He highlighted the Biden administration's involvement in the Gaza conflict as a significant issue that could affect the election. Despite potential changes, Lichtman believes that even if the foreign policy keys turned negative, they would not provide Trump with enough of an advantage to win.
In an interview with Fox 5 Washington, Lichtman elaborated on the impact of Joe Biden's decision to step aside following a challenging debate performance against Trump. He asserted that Democrats uniting around Harris was a crucial turning point. Lichtman also noted Harris's positive impact on key factors, including diminishing the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaign and reducing major protests.
Recent national polls support Lichtman's prediction, showing Harris leading Trump by four percentage points. However, the candidates are neck-and-neck in crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia. Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump holds an edge in Arizona.
As the election approaches, Lichtman's prediction remains a topic of significant interest and debate, highlighting the ongoing dynamics and uncertainties in the 2024 presidential race.
