As the United States approaches the November 5 presidential election, a striking new prediction has emerged. Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller, who accurately forecasted the 2020 election, now anticipates a landslide victory for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris over Donald Trump.
Miller, renowned for his unconventional method of predicting elections, uses betting markets instead of traditional polling. His approach, which helped him successfully predict the outcome of the 2020 election, involves converting betting odds into forecasts of the popular vote and Electoral College. Miller's model is built on the analysis of 16 presidential elections, highlighting a weak link between popular vote outcomes and betting odds. His latest analysis indicates a sharp shift in voter sentiment, now heavily favoring Harris.
According to Miller's latest forecast, Harris is expected to secure 55% of the popular vote. This gives her a substantial advantage in the Electoral College, significantly increasing her chances of victory. His prediction marks a major turnaround from earlier in the year, when Donald Trump appeared to have a significant lead over Joe Biden. However, following Biden's withdrawal from the race, the dynamics shifted, and Harris has surged ahead.
Miller shared his thoughts on the evolving race with Fortune magazine. "It's gone from a drastic landslide in Trump's direction to a drastic landslide for Harris," he said, underscoring the dramatic change in public opinion.
Harris' rising popularity is also reflected in recent polling data. A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Harris leading Trump in crucial swing states, which will play a decisive role in the election. In Pennsylvania, for example, Harris holds a six-point lead over Trump, with 51% of voters supporting her compared to Trump's 45%. This lead is seen as particularly significant, as Pennsylvania is expected to be one of the most critical battleground states in November.
Similarly, in Michigan, Harris maintains a five-point lead over Trump, with 50% of respondents backing the Democratic candidate and 45% supporting the Republican. This is a key development, as Michigan is another pivotal state that could swing the election.
In Wisconsin, the race is even tighter, with Harris holding a narrow one-point lead over Trump. According to the poll, 48% of voters support Harris, while 47% back Trump. Although this margin is slim, it signals a shift toward Harris, further solidifying her position as the frontrunner.
Harris' momentum has also been boosted by public endorsements. Last week, pop star Taylor Swift publicly announced her support for Harris following the vice president's first debate with Trump. Swift's backing adds further visibility to Harris' campaign, potentially influencing younger voters.
With only weeks left until the election, all eyes are on these crucial swing states. Miller's model, coupled with recent polling data, suggests that Harris may be on track for a decisive victory in November.
