The death of Hamas' so-called "Face of Evil," who masterminded the October 7 massacre, has created a power vacuum and whoever steps in to fill in this vacuum will heavily influence the course of the ongoing conflict. Yahya Sinwar, 61, was killed on Wednesday during a routine operation by Israeli Defense Force troops conducting patrols in Rafah.
The IDF fired a tank shell at a building after coming across Hamas militants, and Sinwar's body was later found in the debris. Sinwar had been leading Hamas in Gaza since 2017 and became the acting chief of the terror group in July after the assassination of former leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran.
Sinwar's Death Creates Void
Sinwar played a crucial role in halting peace negotiations with Israel following his ascension. He contended that Hamas was close to eliminating the Jewish state.
With nearly 100 hostages from the October 7 incident still being held by Hamas, whoever succeeds Sinwar as the leading figure in the terror group will likely have a significant influence on the course of the conflict—determining whether peace can be achieved or if the violence will continue into the next year.
Here are the top contenders.
Khalil Al Hayya
Hamas' primary negotiator, who was instrumental in cease-fire talks in Cairo and Doha during the summer, is seen as a leading candidate succeed Sinwar.
As a former close aide to Sinwar, his rise to leadership could potentially steer Hamas toward a more diplomatic strategy, according to analysts.
In the spring, Al Hayya proposed the idea of disarming if Israel allowed for the establishment of a Palestinian state in both Gaza and the West Bank—a proposal that Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu has staunchly opposed.
Mohammed Sinwar
Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research of Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Hamas expert, told The New York Post that Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of the late Hamas leader, is one of the group's highest-ranking commanders in its military division and could be a potential "dark horse" candidate to lead the organization.
At 49 years old, Sinwar has largely stayed out of the spotlight throughout his career with Hamas, making few public appearances or comments to the media, according to Reuters. He remains a top target for Israel and has survived multiple assassination attempts over the years.
Schanzer said that while Sinwar may not possess the charismatic leadership and vision that his brother had, his name might still earn him respect among the Hamas ranks, as familial ties can hold significant weight for leadership and influence in the Arab world.
The Sinwar brothers were known to be very close, and both are believed to have collaborated in planning the October 7 attack on Israel, which resulted in over 1,200 deaths, according to Fox News.
Khaled Meshaal
Khaled Meshaal, 68, led Hamas from 2004 to 2017, and Schanzer believes he is the most likely candidate to assume leadership now. "He's the heir apparent out of the process of elimination — literally," Schanzer said.
Designated a global terrorist by the US, Meshaal remains a senior official based in Qatar and reportedly missed out on the top position in Hamas after Haniyeh's assassination due to a maneuver by Sinwar in August, according to Schanzer.
After Sinwar took charge, Meshaal called for escalation of violence, urging Palestinians in the West Bank to conduct suicide bombings against Israelis.
Mohammad Shabana
Mohammad Shabana is one of the last remaining high-ranking leaders of Hamas' military, overseeing their southern forces in Rafah.
He is believed to have played a major role in the development of the extensive tunnel network in Rafah, which has complicated the fighting in the region, according to Reuters.
Shabana has been leading Hamas' forces in Rafah since 2014.
Hussam Badran
Hussam Badran, 58, is one of the most notable public spokespeople for Hamas. Badran previously held a leadership position in Hamas's military wing, but it is primarily his role as one of the last surviving public figures of the organization that makes him a potential candidate for leadership.
"We're in uncharted waters," Schanzer remarked, pointing out that while Badran may be an unlikely choice and not particularly strong as a leader, he could be one of the few remaining options.
"I don't know how Hamas can regroup at this point," he added.
