For the plain eye, the Trump Campaign 2020 is dead in the water. But the reality may be different. The President is in the hospital, fighting a deadly virus. Outside the hospital, there's a vitriolic attack on him. He's being lampooned, excoriated, vilified and demonized. No one believes he has much chance left in this election. Many don't even expect him to return from the hospital alive.
Is the election over for America? The answer is, not yet. As per many mainstream polls, Joe Biden has double digit leads nationally. The NBC/Wall Street Journal survey says Biden is leading Trump 14 percent. According to the BBC's poll of polls, Biden's lead over Trump is 9 percent, nationally. As per the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Sunday, Biden's national lead over Trump is 10 percent.
This shows that Biden has been able to maintain the uptick he got following the Democratic National Convention. His support has actually improved after the first presidential debate against Trump. However, as everyone knows, the national polls can be misleading. We saw it in Trump Vs Clinton in 2016.
A Trump victory is a real possibility even at this point. He could even win 'comfortably' it he If wins battlegrounds Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If these states are won by Trump it will be an electoral college landslide, 320-218.
One crucial poll, by the Democracy Institute, suggests the same could happen in 2020 too. The poll underscores the fact that the battle is nearly evenly placed in a handful of crucial swing states. Actually Trump is holding on to narrow leads in these states.
The bottom line is, a Trump victory is a real possibility even at this point. He could even win 'comfortably' when it comes to the makeup of the electoral college. If Trump wins battlegrounds Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he secures another term in the White House. If these states are won by Trump it will be an electoral college landslide, 320-218.
Only around 60 percent of Americans cast their ballots in a presidential election, but way more than that number have strong opinions about who should become the president!
As per the polls Trump's lead in these six states is an average 4 percent, 47 percent for Trump against 43 percent for Biden. No poll is accurate, and upsets do happen, but if the Democracy Institute poll is any indication, the battle is far from over.
One factor to note is that the Democracy Institute was the only major survey that correctly predicted two mammoth incidents in 2016 - Brexit and Trump's win.
What's Different With the Democracy Institute polling?
First, this poll only considers people who identify as 'likely voters', not all the registered voters. The focus is on finding out how the candidates fare among people who are actually voting, not those who air opinion and then give a miss to the voting.
Only around 60 percent of Americans cast their ballots in a presidential election, but way more than that number have strong opinions about who should become the president.
This survey takes into account the category called ''shy votes'. These are people who would not accept publicly that they would vote for Trump.
Another key pointer to the outcome is that the enthusiasm of Black voters in 2020 is flat. Another red flag for Biden.
This survey also looked at the 'enthusiasm' levels in each camp. It found that only 49 percent of Biden supporters answered 'yes' to the question: "Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?" At the same time, as many as 83 percent of Trump voters answered affirmatively to this question.
Yet another factor this survey revealed is that Biden's current support among the Black voters is not just enough. Most surveys show that 70-80 percent of the Black voters support Biden. This is true, but it isn't enough for Biden, says the Democracy Institute. Biden needs 90 percent of Black votes this election.
Another key pointer to the outcome is that the enthusiasm of Black voters in 2020 is flat. Another red flag for Biden.
Law & Order and Economy
The Black Lives Matter movement shook up American politics in the last several months, but it does have some downsides for Biden. More than 30 percent of the electorate think that law and order is the key plank on which they are voting this year. Economy comes only second. And, some 70 percent say the economy is bouncing back. While 60 percent trust Trump with the economy, 40 percent have faith in Biden.
The Guardian's Election Tracker is also mostly in line with the Democracy Institute's numbers in swing states. As per Guardian, Biden's lead in all these six plus Ohio, North Carolina and Arizona is narrow. In some states the lead is even negligible. In Iowa, the President leads Biden.
